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Market inspector · chengdu · 2026-05-03
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on May 3?
μ blend22.84C248 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.34combined uncertainty
source spread±0.94Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour15:00 ±0.9hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 22.837C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
67 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 67 snapshots; drift from 25.9C to 23.7C (-2.2C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤19Chighest temperature in chengdu on may 3 2026 19corbelow0.2%0.6%-0.4pp20Chighest temperature in chengdu on may 3 2026 20c6.8%0.5%+6.3pp21Chighest temperature in chengdu on may 3 2026 21c18.1%3.0%+15.1pp22Chighest temperature in chengdu on may 3 2026 22c28.3%12.2%+16.1pp23Chighest temperature in chengdu on may 3 2026 23c25.9%28.0%-2.1pp24Chighest temperature in chengdu on may 3 2026 24c13.9%35.0%-21.1pp25Cyouhighest temperature in chengdu on may 3 2026 25c4.4%17.0%-12.6pp26Chighest temperature in chengdu on may 3 2026 26c0.8%17.0%-16.2pp27Chighest temperature in chengdu on may 3 2026 27c0.1%1.7%-1.6pp28Chighest temperature in chengdu on may 3 2026 28c0.0%1.0%-1.0pp≥29Chighest temperature in chengdu on may 3 2026 29corhigher0.0%0.5%-0.5pp