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Market inspector · moscow · 2026-05-04
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on May 4?
μ blend21.25C177 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend0.87combined uncertainty
source spread±1.81Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour15:00 ±1.0hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 21.245C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
29 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 29 snapshots; drift from 19.1C to 20.1C (+1.1C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤17Chighest temperature in moscow on may 4 2026 17corbelow0.0%0.4%-0.4pp18Chighest temperature in moscow on may 4 2026 18c0.5%0.7%-0.2pp19Chighest temperature in moscow on may 4 2026 19c7.1%1.0%+6.1pp20Chighest temperature in moscow on may 4 2026 20c31.3%1.1%+30.2pp21Chighest temperature in moscow on may 4 2026 21c41.9%9.0%+32.9pp22Chighest temperature in moscow on may 4 2026 22c17.1%19.0%-1.9pp23Chighest temperature in moscow on may 4 2026 23c2.1%23.0%-20.9pp24Chighest temperature in moscow on may 4 2026 24c0.1%36.0%-35.9pp25Chighest temperature in moscow on may 4 2026 25c0.0%14.0%-14.0pp26Cyouhighest temperature in moscow on may 4 2026 26c0.0%3.7%-3.7pp≥27Chighest temperature in moscow on may 4 2026 27corhigher0.0%3.7%-3.7pp