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Market inspector · moscow · 2026-05-04
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on May 4?
μ blend21.20C156 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend0.90combined uncertainty
source spread±1.82Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour15:00 ±1.0hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 21.196C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
26 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 26 snapshots; drift from 19.1C to 20.1C (+1.1C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤17Chighest temperature in moscow on may 4 2026 17corbelow0.0%0.4%-0.4pp18Chighest temperature in moscow on may 4 2026 18c0.7%0.7%+0.0pp19Chighest temperature in moscow on may 4 2026 19c8.4%1.0%+7.4pp20Chighest temperature in moscow on may 4 2026 20c32.2%1.1%+31.1pp21Chighest temperature in moscow on may 4 2026 21c40.1%9.0%+31.1pp22Cyouhighest temperature in moscow on may 4 2026 22c16.3%24.0%-7.7pp23Chighest temperature in moscow on may 4 2026 23c2.1%24.0%-21.9pp24Chighest temperature in moscow on may 4 2026 24c0.1%34.0%-33.9pp25Chighest temperature in moscow on may 4 2026 25c0.0%19.0%-19.0pp26Chighest temperature in moscow on may 4 2026 26c0.0%3.6%-3.6pp≥27Chighest temperature in moscow on may 4 2026 27corhigher0.0%4.2%-4.2pp