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Market inspector · madrid · 2026-05-03
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 3?
μ blend19.68C281 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.18combined uncertainty
source spread±1.45Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour16:00 ±2.6hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 19.68C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
76 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 76 snapshots; drift from 20.6C to 20.7C (+0.1C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤16Chighest temperature in madrid on may 3 2026 16corbelow0.1%0.3%-0.2pp17Chighest temperature in madrid on may 3 2026 17c6.6%0.4%+6.2pp18Cyouhighest temperature in madrid on may 3 2026 18c20.5%1.0%+19.5pp19Chighest temperature in madrid on may 3 2026 19c32.4%9.9%+22.5pp20Chighest temperature in madrid on may 3 2026 20c26.1%35.0%-8.9pp21Chighest temperature in madrid on may 3 2026 21c10.7%46.0%-35.3pp22Chighest temperature in madrid on may 3 2026 22c2.3%14.0%-11.8pp23Chighest temperature in madrid on may 3 2026 23c0.2%5.8%-5.6pp24Chighest temperature in madrid on may 3 2026 24c0.0%1.2%-1.2pp25Chighest temperature in madrid on may 3 2026 25c0.0%0.3%-0.3pp≥26Chighest temperature in madrid on may 3 2026 26corhigher0.0%0.7%-0.7pp