00
OVERVIEW
· all generations · single screen · live00:49CEST
live
Market inspector · madrid · 2026-05-03
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 3?
μ blend19.68C285 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.19combined uncertainty
source spread±1.44Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour16:00 ±2.6hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 19.683C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
77 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 77 snapshots; drift from 20.6C to 20.7C (+0.1C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤16Chighest temperature in madrid on may 3 2026 16corbelow0.1%0.3%-0.2pp17Chighest temperature in madrid on may 3 2026 17c6.6%0.4%+6.2pp18Chighest temperature in madrid on may 3 2026 18c20.4%0.9%+19.5pp19Chighest temperature in madrid on may 3 2026 19c32.3%6.2%+26.1pp20Chighest temperature in madrid on may 3 2026 20c26.1%35.0%-8.9pp21Cyouhighest temperature in madrid on may 3 2026 21c10.8%46.0%-35.2pp22Chighest temperature in madrid on may 3 2026 22c2.3%14.0%-11.7pp23Chighest temperature in madrid on may 3 2026 23c0.2%5.6%-5.4pp24Chighest temperature in madrid on may 3 2026 24c0.0%1.0%-1.0pp25Chighest temperature in madrid on may 3 2026 25c0.0%0.3%-0.3pp≥26Chighest temperature in madrid on may 3 2026 26corhigher0.0%0.6%-0.6pp