00
OVERVIEW
· all generations · single screen · live23:33CEST
live
Market inspector · madrid · 2026-05-03
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 3?
μ blend19.67C272 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.19combined uncertainty
source spread±1.47Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour16:00 ±2.6hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 19.666C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
75 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 75 snapshots; drift from 20.6C to 20.7C (+0.1C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤16Chighest temperature in madrid on may 3 2026 16corbelow0.1%0.3%-0.2pp17Chighest temperature in madrid on may 3 2026 17c6.9%0.4%+6.5pp18Chighest temperature in madrid on may 3 2026 18c20.7%1.1%+19.6pp19Chighest temperature in madrid on may 3 2026 19c32.2%5.9%+26.3pp20Cyouhighest temperature in madrid on may 3 2026 20c25.8%42.0%-16.2pp21Chighest temperature in madrid on may 3 2026 21c10.7%43.0%-32.3pp22Chighest temperature in madrid on may 3 2026 22c2.3%17.0%-14.7pp23Chighest temperature in madrid on may 3 2026 23c0.3%5.1%-4.9pp24Chighest temperature in madrid on may 3 2026 24c0.0%0.9%-0.9pp25Chighest temperature in madrid on may 3 2026 25c0.0%0.3%-0.3pp≥26Chighest temperature in madrid on may 3 2026 26corhigher0.0%0.2%-0.2pp